International Vaccine Scan
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367 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been procured in the UK from seven different developers; Hong Kong has procured 22.5 million doses of the Fosun Pharma, AstraZeneca, and Sinovac vaccines; Germany has procured around 538 million doses of Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines; and China has secured 100 million doses of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines and an undisclosed amount from other developers. Singapore signed an NDA with the vaccine developers but assures that they’ve secured enough doses to complete the vaccination of all its 5.7 million inhabitants by Q3 2021.

UNITED KINGDOM

Doses Procurement

  • At the moment, the UK has procured 367 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines from seven different developers through five signed contracts.
  • Their vaccines are being procured by The Pfizer-BioNTech jab, AstraZeneca, and Moderna.
  • The vaccines have been procured in four formats: viral vectored vaccines, mRNA vaccines, recombinant protein-based adjuvanted vaccines, and whole inactivated viral vaccines.
  • The total cost of the vaccines for the country is expected to be £2.9 billion but the government announced their decision to make available over £6 billion for the procurement and development of COVID-19 vaccines in their latest Spending Review.

Vaccinations Given to Date

  • Up to February 12th, more than 14 million people have received their first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine in the UK.
  • Additionally, over 530,000 people in the country have already received their second dose.
  • According to the report presented by the ONS, Our World in Data, and the UK Government dashboard, by February 10th, 14,542,318 doses have been given of AstraZeneca and Pfizer vaccines. 21.77 doses per 100 people.

Rollout Projections

  • National Health Service (NHS) expects to give reach 15 million people from the priority groups with their first dose by mid-February to reduce the death toll of the pandemic and deliver the second dose 12 weeks later. They are currently vaccinating an average of 430,000 people per day.
  • The rollout and group prioritization go as follows: From January to Mid-February it will be delivered to the four top priority groups: 1) Care home residents and workers, 2) People aged 80+ and frontline health and social care workers, 3) people between 75-79 years old, 4) people aged 70-74 and clinically extremely vulnerable people.
  • End of February and onward, remaining priority groups: 5) People in ages 65-69, 6) People in ages 16-64 years with underlying health conditions, 7) People within ages 60-64, 8) People within ages 55-59, 9) People within ages 50-54, 10) everyone else.
  • Additionally, the government of the UK expects to start with other adult populations and workers like teachers, supermarket workers, military, and transport workers by spring and expect to have another 21 million people vaccinated by that time.
  • At the moment, while they are trying to deliver the vaccine equally across all areas of the country, their focus is on those that have been highly affected and have the highest number of vulnerable populations. 80% of the country’s population above 70 years old, and 15% of its overall population has received their first dose, this is 6.5 million people.

Rollout Barriers

  • While the orders for the purchase of the vaccine have already been made, there have been challenges with the vaccine’s supply chain and logistics to get them from the manufacturer to the people.
  • Other barriers they have faced during rollout have been securing enough supplies, checking their safety during transportation, making sure the vaccines don’t have scratches, and that they comply with all requirements.

Additional Relevant Data

  • Dr. Clive Dix, chairman of the UK Vaccine Taskforce and chief of the vaccination rollout in the UK, provided the following statistics on the results of the vaccination in the country to the media:
  • The number of COVID cases and deaths by the disease have decreased since January when the vaccination plan started the rollout.
  • On February 6th, the total number of cases was 3,929,835, with 18,262 people testing positive the day before and 133,747 infected during the first week of the month.
  • While the number of positive cases is still high, it decreased by 25.1% compared to the week prior.
  • On February 6th, 828 people died after being diagnosed with COVID-19 on Saturday within 28 days of being diagnosed COVID-19 positive, while the previous week, on January 31th, 6,521 people died from the virus. The death decline one week after the vaccine was 20.9%.
  • The total number of deaths so far in the UK is 112,660.
  • Dr. Dix finished by adding that, since January 29th, the testing efforts across the country also increased by 7.6% in a week, conducting an analysis of 4,511,079 in the first week to have more control of the vaccination impact.
  • According to a poll conducted by YouGov, almost a third part of the adult population in the country may refuse to get vaccinated for COVID-19.
  • Almost 20% of the adults say they definitely won’t or might not get the vaccine, and the other 15% are not sure about their feelings for the vaccine.

HONG KONG

Doses Procured

  • In December 2019, the government of Hong Kong announced its procurement plans to ensure they have enough vaccine doses to serve the entire population twice by using different vaccine developers.
  • They signed a preliminary agreement with Sinovac Biotech to provide 7.5 million doses and expect the first batch of one million doses to arrive at the end of January.
  • The second agreement was made with Fosun Pharma to procure 7.5 million doses by Pfizer and expect the first batch of one million doses to be delivered during the first quarter of 2021.
  • Finally, they agreed with AstraZeneca to procure 7.5 million doses and expect to receive the first batches by the end of the second quarter of the year.
  • In total, the government of Hong Kong has procured 22.5 million doses of the vaccines from different developers.

Vaccinations Given to Date

  • Carrie Lam, Government’s Chief Executive, announced that there has been a delay in the supply of the first batch of vaccine doses from the manufacturer, which has delayed the rollout plan. The government expected to receive the vaccines at the end of January and now expect them at the end of February.
  • Lam confirms that as soon as they have the first batch they’ll start the rollout plan and begin with the priority group, at the moment, Hong Kong’s population has not received any dose of the COVID-19 vaccines.

Rollout Projections

  • The Government announced that their plan to roll out the COVID-19 vaccine includes providing the doses to the majority of its population within 2021 free of charge.
  • They will work with the expert advisory group and the Scientific Committees to arrange priority groups to receive the vaccine.
  • The first to receive their doses will be 1) those at higher risk of coming into contact with the virus, such as the healthcare workers; 2) groups with greater mortality rates, like chronic patients and the elderly; and 3) groups that can transmit the virus to the vulnerable population, like the staff of residential care homes.
  • Hong Kong’s Government will arrange the population in groups based on priority and vaccine characteristics to receive the vaccination as fast as possible.
  • However, at the moment, the Government will wait to announce the full details of the vaccination program.

Rollout Barriers

Competition for Limited Supplies:

  • Hong Kong’s Food and Health Bureau spokesman stated that one of the challenges they’ve faced has been the global competition for the vaccines, which has reduced the supplies and delayed the initial stage of the rollout. The government had to procure vaccine doses from different developers to strive for sufficient supplies for its population and watch for delivery through batches so start with its vulnerable population as soon as possible.
  • They’ve also joined the COVAX Facility of the World Health Organization and contacted individual developers to procure sufficient doses.

Vaccine Delivery has Delayed the Rollout:

  • Carrie Lam, Government’s Chief Executive, announced that the first batch of vaccine doses, Fosun Pharma/BioNTech vaccine, scheduled to arrive in January was delayed for multiple issues happening in the European Union and Germany, where the vaccine is being fabricated.
  • The vaccines have already been authorized and the contractual agreement made, so they expect to receive the first batch by the end of February to start the rollout of the vaccine.

Additional Relevant Data

  • The vaccination process to fight COVID-19 hasn’t started in Hong Kong for a delay in the vaccine delivery from the manufacturers, so there is no information at the moment about the impact of the vaccines on the number of positive cases and deaths in the country.
  • A poll conducted by the Medical School of the Chinese University determined that less than 40% of the population in Hong Kong are willing to take the vaccine when it arrives. The government is conducting a strong marketing campaign to educate the population and debunk misinformation about the vaccine and offering cash incentives to ensure they reach the desired number of participants to control the pandemic. Most of the population is also dubious about taking a vaccine fabricated in Mainland China.

SINGAPORE

Doses Procured

  • Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced the country’s decision to assign S$1 billion or USD 750 million for vaccination.
  • The country signed an agreement with Moderna, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc., Pfizer, and Sinovac to have the vaccine doses delivered during Q1 2021.
  • The first shipment of Pfizer/BioNTech was received on December 21st and the first of Moderna in March.
  • While the Government of Singapore has not made the number of doses public, they’ve assured to have worked hard to secure the needed doses for its entire population of 5.7 million people despite their small market size for these companies.
  • They’ve acquired the needed double doses of Pfizer, Moderna, and Sinovac, and a single dose needed from Arcturus. However, to guarantee their deal with the developers for smaller quantities than bigger countries, they signed Non-Disclosure Agreements with the vaccine developers and haven’t made the exact procurement per developer public.
  • The doses needed in the country are 8 million for the Pfizer vaccine.

Vaccinations Given to Date

  • Singapore started its Coronavirus vaccination campaign on December 30th, with the first dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine applied to healthcare workers.
  • By February 2nd, the Government announced that over 175,000 people have received the first dose of Pfizer/BioNTech, including Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on January 8th.
  • Close to 6,000 people had received the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech by February 2nd including the workers in healthcare, essential and frontline services, senior citizens and staff in nursing homes, and some employees of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases.
  • According to the report presented by the ONS, Our World in Data, and the UK Government dashboard, by February 10th, 256,000 people in Singapore have received their first dose of Pfizer/BioNTech, this is 4.38 doses per 100 people.

Rollout Projections

  • Singapore plans to have rolled out the vaccines to all its population of 5.7 million people by Q3 2021.
  • The first priority group are healthcare workers, the elderly starting with those aged 70+, essential and frontline workers on high spread industries like construction, process sector, marine, nursing homes, migrant workers, and some Government employees working close to the pandemic.
  • The vaccination of its population will be voluntary and free to all long-term residents and citizens.
  • They started with pilot vaccinations for senior citizens on January 27th.
  • The Ministry of Health stated their plans to roll out the vaccine to the 18+ years old population once the first shipment of the Moderna vaccine arrives around March.
  • However, they have indicated that the entire details of the rollout plan will be provided later.

Rollout Barriers

  • The country hasn’t received all the doses needed for the entire population and started the rollout with just the first batch of Pfizer. They are waiting for the first batch of Moderna to be delivered in March.
  • They are also waiting for the development of the ARCT-021 vaccine to be complete and ready for the public in early 2021, as this vaccine promises to be effective with a single dose.
  • Another challenge the Government has faced in ensuring the rollout of the vaccines is the country’s climate, which has made maintaining the cold chain necessary for the vaccines more difficult. According to Zuellig Pharma, Singapore is developing special boxes to transport and store the vaccines to keep them at the needed temperature.
  • Additionally, the Government indicated that certain delays in the supply chain might delay their rollout plan.
  • Health Minister Gan Kim Yong has expressed his concerns for the number of citizens that are unwilling to be vaccinated and warned them that if they decide to wait there might not be the availability of doses later.
  • Some are unwilling to receive the vaccine for fear of allergic reactions as 4 in 155,000 people in Singapore who have received it has been critically allergic. The Government has offered a $10,000 to $225,000 compensation to an individual/family affected by anaphylaxis from the vaccine.

Additional Relevant Data

  • A poll conducted by YouGov determined that 47% of Singaporeans as willing to be vaccinated, 34% are not sure if they will take it, and 19% are refusing to receive the vaccine.
  • The new daily positive cases of COVID-19 have decreased from 25 cases on January 27th when the first dose was provided to 12 cases per day on February 12th.

CHINA

Doses Procured

  • On December 15th, it was announced that China had procured 100 million doses of Pfizer/the BioNTech vaccine for its citizens that will be delivered before the end of 2021.
  • China has secured private deals with AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Gamaleya, and the Chines firms Sinovac and Sinopharm without disclosing the total number of doses procured.
  • It has been determined that China would need 1.96 billion doses to vaccinate its entire population. China has assured they already secured the amount needed for its inhabitants.

Vaccinations Given to Date

  • According to the report presented by the ONS, Our World in Data, and the UK Government dashboard, by February 10th, 40,520,000 people have received the first dose of the Sinopharm or Sinovac vaccines, this is 2.82 doses for every 100 people.
  • The first doses were given on December 15th, 2020.
  • At the beginning of February, the government reported that they had already administered 24 million doses, but all those represented the first dose, which means that 1.6% of the population in the country received the first dose of the vaccine before February. They haven’t applied second doses yet.

Rollout Projections

  • China’s government expects to have 3.5% of its population or 50 million people vaccinated by mid-February.
  • The country’s rollout started with the first dose of the vaccine for the key priority groups: healthcare, transportation, shipping workers, hotel employees, food storage workers, border inspection personnel, and travelers, all aged between 18 and 59 years old, to then pivot to vulnerable people and population over 60 years old.
  • They also expect to complete the first dose in all government authorities before China’s New Year festivities.
  • While they would’ve preferred to prioritize the elderly, they’ve waited on this population because the vaccine they have available, Sinopharm, hasn’t been tested on this demographic.
  • The Government’s goal was to vaccinate 50 million essential workers or 4% of the population by mid-February. However, due to the slow production of vaccines, Sinopharm’s senior executive Zhang Yuntao indicated that it will take one or two years to vaccinate 500 million people in china or 36% of the population if it continues at the same pace.
  • Sinovac’s vaccine was approved at the beginning of February and will roll out soon for the population in high risk of exposure groups.
  • President of China’s Vaccine Industry Association, Feng Duojia, announced that the goal is still to exceed 1.8 billion doses at the end of December 2021 to cover almost 1 billion people.

Rollout Barriers

  • The biggest challenge that China is experiencing is its large population since it will take the country a long time to vaccinate the 1.4 billion citizens and guarantee herd immunity by completing 60-72% of its residents.
  • Additionally, their second challenge is that China started its vaccination rollout with the Sinopharm vaccine, which has 79% of effectiveness, and since the vaccine hasn’t been tested with the population above 59 years old, they haven’t been able to apply it to this vulnerable group.
  • They are still waiting for the other vaccines they have procured, like Sinovac, to complete its trials to use them.
  • The Chinese government has also expressed its concern that the time it takes to produce the vaccines might affect the rollout schedule. In 2020, only 610 million shots were produced, enough for 300 million people. Sinopharm plans to expand its production line to be able to produce 1.8 billion shots in 2021.
  • China’s vaccine manufacturers also have contracts to exporting vaccines to other countries, which decreases the number of vaccines that can stay in China. They expected to produce enough vaccines for 70% of its population by the end of the year.

Additional Relevant Data

  • A survey conducted by China’s National Natural Science Foundation and Harbin Medical University determined that less than 70% of its population want to get the COVID vaccine.
  • However, another survey conducted three months later by YouGov determined that 61% of the people in China will get vaccinated.

GERMANY

Doses Procured

  • During the summer of 2020, Germany procured 300 million doses of the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine, which is the only vaccine permitted to the members of the EU.
  • In January, Germany’s government announced that they’ve made agreements to secure an additional 94 million doses of BioNTech/Pfizer’s vaccine, procure 64 million doses from other country’s in the EU, and another 30 million doses of the same vaccine from a separate bilateral deal.
  • Additionally, Berlin has secured 50 million doses of the Moderna vaccines that other countries haven’t bought.

Vaccinations Given to Date

  • According to the report presented by the ONS, Our World in Data, and the UK Government dashboard, by February 10th, 3,669,148 doses have been given of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer vaccines. This is 4.38 doses for every 100 people.
  • The first vaccine was given on December 26th, 2020.
  • Due to the delay in the supply of vaccines to the EU, Germany’s Government has paused the administration of second-doses to focus on giving the first dose to all its population at risk. Before this decision, in January, 25,000 second-doses have been received by people in the high priority group.

Rollout Projections

  • Jens Spahn, Germany’s Health Minister, assured that based on their prioritization strategy, all nursing home residents will be vaccinated before February 2021. She also expects that every person in the country will have the option to receive the vaccine by summer.
  • Since the vaccination started, Germany has focused on the priority groups which include the healthcare workers, the elderly, and nursing home staff and residents.
  • Germany’s rollout plan follows three priority groups, starting with nursing home residents on December 27th as the first to receive their doses.
  • After completing the nursing home residents, they moved to the highest priority group or group 1, which includes: 1) Population above 80 years old, 2) Care workers or staff who works with the elderly or mentally ill, 3) Healthcare workers with the highest risk of exposure or who work with patients at a higher risk of dying from the virus.
  • Group 2 or the higher priority group includes: 1) Population above 70 years old, 2) People with underlying health conditions with higher risk of dying from the virus, 3) People working close to pregnant women or people in care, 4) Healthcare workers with high exposure risk, 5) Essential workers who maintain hospitals.
  • Group 3 or the high priority group includes: 1) Population above 60 years old, 2) People with underlying health conditions with a high risk of serious illness from the virus, 3) Healthcare workers that weren’t included before, 4) Essential public and government workers like police, fire department, disaster relief, etc., 5) Other critical infrastructure workers, pharmacy network, power, water, and food supply staff, etc., 6) Daycare workers and Teachers, 7) People in precarious part-time jobs, 8) Retail workers.
  • After completing Group 3, the vaccine will be rolled out to the rest of the population.
  • The Government expects to receive 3-4 million doses before February, and another 11-13 million doses before April 2021. If this distribution remains the same, the plan is to complete the second dose of the first group in March and to complete the immunization of all 84 million Germans in one year.

Rollout Barriers

  • The biggest challenge that Germany has experienced is that, as part of the European Union, the only vaccine permitted to its members is the one from BioNTech/Pfizer, limiting their possibilities of securing doses from more developers and depending on a single vendor’s availability.
  • Unfortunately, in January, Pfizer announced there would be a delay of weeks in the vaccine production, affecting Germany’s rollout schedule.
  • The second challenge was that the Government secured only 300 million doses believing there would be more vaccines available to continue the rollout when needed, but that wasn’t the case, because of the high demand and slow production of the vaccine globally.
  • This failure to ensure sufficient doses on the first agreement has caused a delay in the Government’s plan to complete the immunization of its citizens and brought critics as they failed to secure enough vaccines to complete two doses needed for the entire population.

Additional Relevant Data

  • In January, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) determined that due to Germany’s delay to continue its vaccination campaign, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increased by 18,678 to a total of 2,019,636, and its deaths by 980 to a total 45,974.
  • A survey conducted by the Government of Germany indicated that 23% of the country’s population say that they will definitely or probably not get the vaccine.
GLENN TREVOR
Glenn is the Lead Operations Research Analyst at The Digital Momentum with experience in research, statistical data analysis and interview techniques. A holder of degree in Economics. A true specialist in quantitative and qualitative research.

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